In this MBIE report (which is jointly prepared by Pacifecon and BRANZ), a peak in total construction value at $43b is forecast in 2021. This has been driven by an anticipated levelling out of residential activity from 2020 onward as well as a tailing off of non-residential activity in 2021.
Auckland, however, bucks this trend, with strong growth in residential activity forecast throughout the forecast period. This is forecast to reach $12.2b by the end of the forecast period (which is 39% above 2018 levels).
Nationwide, dwelling consents increased by 6% in 2018 over 2017 and are forecast to increase by a further 9% in 2019. It is anticipated that 224,500 new dwellings will be consented over the next six years, an average of over 37,000 per year. Of note is the fact that multi-unit dwellings accounted for 36% of all dwellings consented in 2018, which could increase to 41% of all residential dwellings in 2024.
For a detailed analysis, read the full report.